What this means for decision-makers: nominal household spending is up 6.8% year-on-year, but that’s mostly price, real growth is closer to 2.5–3%, and discretionary volumes are essentially flat. The split is sharpening by category: Bunnings, Chemist Warehouse, Supercheap Auto and Lovisa are all growing, while JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Accent and Macpac are going backwards. Three cost lines move against every retailer at once this year: award wages up 4.75% from 1 July, Payday Super tightening cash cycles from the same date, and Brent above US$100 since September.  The end of card surcharging on 1 October is the one line that should move in retailers’ favour, worth an estimated $910m a year back to merchants nationally.  This will be a bumpy ride as everyone looks to protect their margins. ReedKnapp’s base case (55% probability) has non-grocery comparable sales growing 1–3% nominal, with pharmacy, auto maintenance and home improvement outperforming everything else.